Big 12 Power Rankings: February 16, 2018

This week’s Power Rankings post is my 13th edition of the season. Last week, for the first time this season, I took a look at conference-only efficiency data, without any of the adjustments for competition or outside influences. It’s just the raw data. Let’s do that again this week.

Capture - b12 effieciency 219

How about 6-7 Baylor having a better efficiency margin than 9-4 Kansas? That speaks to the extreme competition within this conference. On any given night, any team can compete and defeat any other team. That’s how you get 4-9 Iowa State beating 10-3 Texas Tech and 8-5 West Virginia. I know people might get a little tired of the “this league has no nights off and is the deepest conference I’ve ever seen” talk, but when it’s true, it’s true.

Let’s get into the rankings. Included this week: Texas Tech’s motion offense, Bill Self loves his lobs, West Virginia’s declining defense, Dylan Osetkowski’s hair (we need to talk about it), and more!

All of my previous Power Rankings posts, as well as the season previews I wrote, can be found at this link. For any newcomers, below is a blurb I wrote in my first Power Rankings post this season. (If you’ve been here before, go ahead and skip ahead to the good stuff.) The below inset is what I’ve decided is essentially my mission statement for this weekly article. Give it a read if you’re new. Continue reading

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Big 12 Power Rankings: February 9, 2018

This week’s Power Rankings post is my 12th edition of the season. One thing I have yet to do this season is show conference only statistics in this post. In each team’s section, all of the offensive and defensive statistics are from Kenpom’s season-long figures, adjusted for competition and recency. I have yet to take a look at the raw conference data. Here it is for where we are in this Big 12 season.

Capture - b12 efficiency

West Virginia and Texas Tech are pulling away from the rest of the conference from a raw efficiency margin standpoint in conference play, but yet, Kansas is right there at the top of the league yet again (tied with Texas Tech). This speaks to how good Kansas is in close games under Bill Self. They should not be tied for 1st place right now, but they are, because they seemingly always are the victor in close games. Kansas is 60-25 in games decided by 6 points or fewer or games that reach OT since 2011 — the best record in the country in that time frame. That’s how Kansas can be tied for 1st place in the league right now despite trailing West Virginia by 6.5 points and Texas Tech by 4.1 points in net margin in Big 12 play.

Let’s get into the ranking. Included this week: Devonte Graham’s assists, some team comps for Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and TCU, why West Virginia might be in better shape than people realize for the regular season crown, and more!

All of my previous Power Rankings posts, as well as the season previews I wrote, can be found at this link. For any newcomers, below is a blurb I wrote in my first Power Rankings post this season. (If you’ve been here before, go ahead and skip ahead to the good stuff.) The below inset is what I’ve decided is essentially my mission statement for this weekly article. Give it a read if you’re new. Continue reading

Bracketology: February 7, 2018 Edition

Here is my latest updated Bracketology post, my first in two weeks. Most Big 12 teams have now played 11 games, and we have just 3.5 weeks left of conference action. It’s time to re-examine where Big 12 teams stand in the grand scheme of the Bracketology science.

A permanent reminder for this post — the NCAA has changed their “bucketing” of wins this season. It’s no longer top-25 or top-50; wins are now separated into quadrants to considering the impact of home vs. road games. You’ll still see the top-25 and top-50 designations on ESPN during games, and I’m not sure why. I’m guessing they like the ease of it, and don’t want to deal with the headache of explaining the new buckets to the viewers. I’ll explain it here then. Below is what I’ve written previously about these new changes.

One important development since my last Bracketology post is that the NCAA has revealed some of their new logic in selecting teams for this year’s tournament. No longer will we see the historical Top 25, Top 50, Top 100 wins. Now, the committee has placed more importance on road/neutral games and have created “quadrants” to properly place these games. Straight from the linked article above from the NCAA website, here is how the quadrants will be bucketed:
  Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75
  Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
  Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
  Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus

So now instead of talking about top-50 wins, you’ll hear and read about Quadrant 1 wins when you read Bracketology posts. If a site is still talking about top-50 wins in regards to a team’s NCAA Tournament chances without mentioning if that win came at home, on the road, or at a neutral site, quit reading that site. It is uninformed. There are two tools I like to use to see how a team’s wins will look at the end of the season: RPIForecast and barttorvik.com. Both sites show a current projection of where a team’s RPI is expected to be at the end of the season, but you can also tinker with results to see what it would mean for their RPI. At barttorvik.com, there is an RPI Forecast page and a TeamCast page. The latter allows you to input results into future games for a specific team to see the RPI and NCAA Tournament likelihood effects on that team — it’s a great tool. Use these tools if you’re curious about your favorite school’s Selection Sunday chances.

Once again, I’ve built an actual bracket for this edition, and I’ve seeded the teams 1-68. Also included below is group of teams I have just outside of the field currently. I’ll break down what this all means for each Big 12 team below. Continue reading

Big 12 Power Rankings: January 26th, 2018 Edition

This week’s Power Rankings post is my 11th edition of the season. Included this week: Bill Self is an offensive genius, Alex Robinson is a pick and roll genius, I weigh in on the Trae Young debate, I speculate wildly about Scott Drew’s future at Baylor, and more! Let’s get into this week’s rankings.

All of my previous Power Rankings posts, as well as the season previews I wrote, can be found at this link. For any newcomers, below is a blurb I wrote in my first Power Rankings post this season. (If you’ve been here before, go ahead and skip ahead to the good stuff.) The below inset is what I’ve decided is essentially my mission statement for this weekly article. Give it a read if you’re new. Continue reading

Bracketology: January 23, 2018 Edition

Here is my latest updated Bracketology post, my first in two weeks. A lot has changed in the last two weeks. We’re approaching the halfway point of Big 12 play as we get nearer to the month of February. Things are starting to take shape.

A reminder from my last Bracketology post — the NCAA has changed their “bucketing” of wins this season. It’s no longer top-25 or top-50; wins are now separated into quadrants to considering the impact of home vs. road games. Below is an inset of what I wrote in the last Bracketology post:

One important development since my last Bracketology post is that the NCAA has revealed some of their new logic in selecting teams for this year’s tournament. No longer will we see the historical Top 25, Top 50, Top 100 wins. Now, the committee has placed more importance on road/neutral games and have created “quadrants” to properly place these games. Straight from the linked article above from the NCAA website, here is how the quadrants will be bucketed:
  Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75
  Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
  Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
  Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus

So now instead of talking about top-50 wins, you’ll hear and read about Quadrant 1 wins when you read Bracketology posts. If a site is still talking about top-50 wins in regards to a team’s NCAA Tournament chances without mentioning if that win came at home, on the road, or at a neutral site, quit reading that site. It is uninformed. There are two tools I like to use to see how a team’s wins will look at the end of the season: RPIForecast and barttorvik.com. Both sites show a current projection of where a team’s RPI is expected to be at the end of the season, but you can also tinker with results to see what it would mean for their RPI. At barttorvik.com, there is an RPI Forecast page and a TeamCast page. The latter allows you to input results into future games for a specific team to see the RPI and NCAA Tournament likelihood effects on that team — it’s a great tool. Use these tools if you’re curious about your favorite school’s Selection Sunday chances.

Once again, I’ve built an actual bracket for this edition, and I’ve seeded the teams 1-68. Also included below is group of teams I have just outside of the field currently. I’ll break down what this all means for each Big 12 team below. Continue reading

Big 12 Power Rankings: January 19th, 2018 Edition

This week’s Power Rankings post is my 10th edition of the season (double-digits!). No need for too much extraneous fluff, these posts are long enough — let’s dive right into this week’s rankings.

All of my previous Power Rankings posts, as well as the season previews I wrote, can be found at this link. For any newcomers, below is a blurb I wrote in my first Power Rankings post this season. (If you’ve been here before, go ahead and skip ahead to the good stuff.) The below inset is what I’ve decided is essentially my mission statement for this weekly article. Give it a read if you’re new. Continue reading

Big 12 Basketball: #TheTuesdayTally: January 16th, 2018

I’ve decided to do a new feature called Big 12 Basketball: #TheTuesdayTally (the name is temporary for now until I think of something better). This post will impart to readers an interesting statistic or trend or piece of information that I’ve found about each Big 12 team. It could be positive or negative, it could be about the entire team or just one player on that team, or it could be more broad, analyzing a team in the grand scheme of things. This is an in-progress idea, so there will be changes and adjustments moving forward. It will definitely be bi-weekly with the potential to be a weekly feature.

Unlike my Power Rankings post, which often include statistics, trends, AND player and team breakdowns using game film, this feature will strictly focus on interesting statistics and trends. It won’t be as long as the Power Rankings post, but it’ll still have plenty of information to help you watch Big 12 games.

Sidebar, if you’re new here, check out my original weekly content — my Big 12 Power Rankings. Here’s a link to all of the previous posts, where you can find analysis and observations I’ve made on each Big 12 team this season. Here’s a link to last week’s post. Check it out.

All statistics used in this post are from Kenpom, Synergy Sports, College Basketball Reference, Hoop-Math, or T-Rank. Please be aware — stats like offensive rating or usage rate can differ between Kenpom, College Basketball Reference, and T-Rank. They will all be fairly close to one another, but they will have slight discrepancies. So if I use College Basketball Reference for a blurb below, it may not match exactly what you see on Kenpom. Alright, let’s dive into this. Continue reading