Bracketology: January 23, 2018 Edition

Here is my latest updated Bracketology post, my first in two weeks. A lot has changed in the last two weeks. We’re approaching the halfway point of Big 12 play as we get nearer to the month of February. Things are starting to take shape.

A reminder from my last Bracketology post — the NCAA has changed their “bucketing” of wins this season. It’s no longer top-25 or top-50; wins are now separated into quadrants to considering the impact of home vs. road games. Below is an inset of what I wrote in the last Bracketology post:

One important development since my last Bracketology post is that the NCAA has revealed some of their new logic in selecting teams for this year’s tournament. No longer will we see the historical Top 25, Top 50, Top 100 wins. Now, the committee has placed more importance on road/neutral games and have created “quadrants” to properly place these games. Straight from the linked article above from the NCAA website, here is how the quadrants will be bucketed:
  Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75
  Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
  Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
  Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus

So now instead of talking about top-50 wins, you’ll hear and read about Quadrant 1 wins when you read Bracketology posts. If a site is still talking about top-50 wins in regards to a team’s NCAA Tournament chances without mentioning if that win came at home, on the road, or at a neutral site, quit reading that site. It is uninformed. There are two tools I like to use to see how a team’s wins will look at the end of the season: RPIForecast and barttorvik.com. Both sites show a current projection of where a team’s RPI is expected to be at the end of the season, but you can also tinker with results to see what it would mean for their RPI. At barttorvik.com, there is an RPI Forecast page and a TeamCast page. The latter allows you to input results into future games for a specific team to see the RPI and NCAA Tournament likelihood effects on that team — it’s a great tool. Use these tools if you’re curious about your favorite school’s Selection Sunday chances.

Once again, I’ve built an actual bracket for this edition, and I’ve seeded the teams 1-68. Also included below is group of teams I have just outside of the field currently. I’ll break down what this all means for each Big 12 team below. Continue reading

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Big 12 Power Rankings: January 19th, 2018 Edition

This week’s Power Rankings post is my 10th edition of the season (double-digits!). No need for too much extraneous fluff, these posts are long enough — let’s dive right into this week’s rankings.

All of my previous Power Rankings posts, as well as the season previews I wrote, can be found at this link. For any newcomers, below is a blurb I wrote in my first Power Rankings post this season. (If you’ve been here before, go ahead and skip ahead to the good stuff.) The below inset is what I’ve decided is essentially my mission statement for this weekly article. Give it a read if you’re new. Continue reading

Big 12 Basketball: #TheTuesdayTally: January 16th, 2018

I’ve decided to do a new feature called Big 12 Basketball: #TheTuesdayTally (the name is temporary for now until I think of something better). This post will impart to readers an interesting statistic or trend or piece of information that I’ve found about each Big 12 team. It could be positive or negative, it could be about the entire team or just one player on that team, or it could be more broad, analyzing a team in the grand scheme of things. This is an in-progress idea, so there will be changes and adjustments moving forward. It will definitely be bi-weekly with the potential to be a weekly feature.

Unlike my Power Rankings post, which often include statistics, trends, AND player and team breakdowns using game film, this feature will strictly focus on interesting statistics and trends. It won’t be as long as the Power Rankings post, but it’ll still have plenty of information to help you watch Big 12 games.

Sidebar, if you’re new here, check out my original weekly content — my Big 12 Power Rankings. Here’s a link to all of the previous posts, where you can find analysis and observations I’ve made on each Big 12 team this season. Here’s a link to last week’s post. Check it out.

All statistics used in this post are from Kenpom, Synergy Sports, College Basketball Reference, Hoop-Math, or T-Rank. Please be aware — stats like offensive rating or usage rate can differ between Kenpom, College Basketball Reference, and T-Rank. They will all be fairly close to one another, but they will have slight discrepancies. So if I use College Basketball Reference for a blurb below, it may not match exactly what you see on Kenpom. Alright, let’s dive into this. Continue reading

Big 12 Power Rankings: January 12th, 2018 Edition

This week’s Power Rankings post is my 9th edition of the season. Each Big 12 team has played four conference games, and it looks like we’re headed for a very tight and very competitive four team race for the regular season title. The word count in this week’s post comes in at over 7,800, so there’s no need for me to waste any more of them here. Let’s get to it — the usual mission statement and key statistics breakdown is up next. Keep scrolling for the rankings and analysis.

All of my previous Power Rankings posts, as well as the season previews I wrote, can be found at this link. For any newcomers, below is a blurb I wrote in my first Power Rankings post this season. (If you’ve been here before, go ahead and skip ahead to the good stuff.) The below inset is what I’ve decided is essentially my mission statement for this weekly article. Give it a read if you’re new. Continue reading

Bracketology: January 9, 2018 Edition

Now that college football is over and the NFL season’s end is fast approaching, focus on college basketball is about to increase rapidly. You’ll start seeing a lot more Bracketology updates across the web as we get deeper into conference play. I wanted to give an update on my projected Bracketology, given that’s it’s been nearly a month since I’ve done so (here’s the last edition on December 19) and now that we have some conference games to factor into the projections.

A reminder from my last Bracketology post — the NCAA has changed their “bucketing” of wins this season. It’s no longer top-25 or top-50; wins are now separated into quadrants to considering the impact of home vs. road games. Below is an inset of what I wrote in the last Bracketology post:

One important development since my last Bracketology post is that the NCAA has revealed some of their new logic in selecting teams for this year’s tournament. No longer will we see the historical Top 25, Top 50, Top 100 wins. Now, the committee has placed more importance on road/neutral games and have created “quadrants” to properly place these games. Straight from the linked article above from the NCAA website, here is how the quadrants will be bucketed:
  Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75
  Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
  Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
  Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus

So now instead of talking about top-50 wins, you’ll hear and read about Quadrant 1 wins when you read Bracketology posts. If a site is still talking about top-50 wins in regards to a team’s NCAA Tournament chances without mentioning if that win came at home, on the road, or at a neutral site, quit reading that site. It is uninformed. There are two tools I like to use to see how a team’s wins will look at the end of the season: RPIForecast and barttorvik.com. Both sites show a current projection of where a team’s RPI is expected to be at the end of the season, but you can also tinker with results to see what it would mean for their RPI. At barttorvik.com, there is an RPI Forecast page and a TeamCast page. The latter allows you to input results into future games for a specific team to see the RPI and NCAA Tournament likelihood effects on that team — it’s a great tool. Use these tools if you’re curious about your favorite school’s Selection Sunday chances.

Once again, I’ve built an actual bracket for this edition, and I’ve seeded the teams 1-68. Also included below is group of teams I have just outside of the field currently. I’ll break down what this all means for each Big 12 team below. Continue reading

Big 12 Power Rankings: January 4th, 2018 Edition

This is the 8th edition of my Big 12 Power Rankings and the first edition posted after Big 12 conference games have been played. In the first week of conference play, road teams went 8-2, Kansas lost at home to Texas Tech for the first time ever, and Trae Young had a 27/10/9 line that felt oddly average (for him). What a great first week. Let’s dive into the rankings. But first!

All of my previous Power Rankings posts, as well as the season previews I wrote, can be found at this link. For any newcomers, below is a blurb I wrote in my first Power Rankings post this season. (If you’ve been here before, go ahead and skip ahead to the good stuff.) The below inset is what I’ve decided is essentially my mission statement for this weekly article. Give it a read if you’re new. Continue reading

Big 12 Power Rankings: December 29th, 2017 Edition – Conference Reset

This is the 7th edition of my Big 12 Power Rankings. The Big 12 season tips off today. I seriously cannot wait. The debate over the “best” conference in the country is often confusing to me. Are we talking about the conference with the most teams who could win it all or the conference that has the highest number of good teams or the conference with the fewest amount of weak teams? We can’t debate this if we don’t know the guidelines of the debate. Nonetheless, there is no argument to this — the conference is clearly the deepest in the country.

This week’s post is going to be a bit different than weeks past. There’s only been six games involving Big 12 teams since last Thursday’s post, and only two of them really mattered: Texas/Alabama and Northwestern/Oklahoma. So there won’t be any game clips or in-depth breakdowns of things I’ve noticed in the last week. Instead, I’m going to use each team’s space as an opportunity to be both optimistic and pessimistic about that team based on a statistic or trend I’ve noticed so far this season. This is a good way to examine a major strength and weakness of each team as we forecast how this conference season will go.

It’s a reset as we head into conference play. The order of this week’s rankings are representative of what I think the conference standings will look like once the conference season is completed in early March. I will include a projected conference record for each team in their section.

All of my previous Power Rankings posts, as well as the season previews I wrote, can be found at this link. For any newcomers, below is a blurb I wrote in my first Power Rankings post this season. (If you’ve been here before, go ahead and skip ahead to the good stuff.) The below inset is what I’ve decided is essentially my mission statement for this weekly article. Give it a read if you’re new. Continue reading