Bracketology: 2018 Final Edition

Here is a my final Bracketology of this 2018 season. Before Davidson beat Rhode Island in the A-10 final, I had made the decision to have Oklahoma State as my last team in. I was convinced the committee would ignore Oklahoma State’s poor RPI and SOS and weigh the quality wins more. The selection committee is moving away from the RPI more and more. Next year, there’s discussion that it will not be used at all. A great way to send it off would be including the lowest ever RPI for an at-large bid. I had thought the discussion on Oklahoma State had moved in this direction. Maybe it still has. But with Davidson winning, I just don’t have room for them in my field.

Before I get to the bracket, here’s a quick reminder on how the NCAA is bucketing wins this year:

One important development since my last Bracketology post is that the NCAA has revealed some of their new logic in selecting teams for this year’s tournament. No longer will we see the historical Top 25, Top 50, Top 100 wins. Now, the committee has placed more importance on road/neutral games and have created “quadrants” to properly place these games. Straight from the linked article above from the NCAA website, here is how the quadrants will be bucketed:
  Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75
  Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
  Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
  Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus

So now instead of talking about top-50 wins, you’ll hear and read about Quadrant 1 wins when you read Bracketology posts. If a site is still talking about top-50 wins in regards to a team’s NCAA Tournament chances without mentioning if that win came at home, on the road, or at a neutral site, quit reading that site. It is uninformed. There are two tools I like to use to see how a team’s wins will look at the end of the season: RPIForecast and barttorvik.com. Both sites show a current projection of where a team’s RPI is expected to be at the end of the season, but you can also tinker with results to see what it would mean for their RPI. At barttorvik.com, there is an RPI Forecast page and a TeamCast page. The latter allows you to input results into future games for a specific team to see the RPI and NCAA Tournament likelihood effects on that team — it’s a great tool. Use these tools if you’re curious about your favorite school’s Selection Sunday chances.

Here is the bracket for this edition, and I’ve seeded the teams 1-68. Also included below is group of teams I have just outside of the field currently. I’ll break down what this all means for each Big 12 team below.


Bracket:

bracket - davidson penn georgia state

Seed List:

•  1 — Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
•  2 — North Carolina, Duke, Purdue, Cincinnati
•  3 — Michigan, Michigan State, Tennessee, Auburn
•  4 — West Virginia, Texas Tech, Arizona, Gonzaga
•  5 — Clemson, Kentucky, Wichita State, Ohio State
•  6 — Houston, Florida, Miami (FL), TCU
•  7 — Nevada, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Arkansas
•  8 — Texas A&M, Creighton, Virginia Tech, Providence
•  9 — Kansas State, Alabama, UCLA, NC State
•  10 — Butler, St. Bonaventure, USC, Missouri
•  11 — Texas, Florida State, St. Mary’s, Oklahoma, Loyola Chicago, Davidson
•  12 —
South Dakota State, San Diego State, Buffalo, New Mexico State
•  13 — 
Murray State, Marshall, College of Charleston, UNC Greensboro
•  14 — 
Bucknell, Montana, Wright State, Stephen F. Austin
•  15 — 
Lipscomb, Penn, Georgia State, Iona
•  16 — 
UMBC, Cal State Fullerton, Radford, LIU Brooklyn, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern

•  Last 4 Byes: Butler, St. Bonaventure, USC, Missouri
•  Last 4 IN: 
Texas, Florida State, St. Mary’s, Oklahoma
•  First 4 OUT:
Oklahoma State, Louisville, Arizona State, Middle Tennessee
•  Next 4 OUT:
Baylor, Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame


Bids by Conference:

•  ACC: 8
•  SEC: 8
•  Big 12: 7
•  Big East: 6
•  Big Ten: 4
•  Pac-12: 3
•  American: 3
•  Atlantic 10: 3
•  West Coast: 2
•  Mountain West: 2


 

 

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