Bracketology: March 10, 2018 Morning Edition

Here is a quick Bracketology before today’s games. Here are the biggest changes involving Big 12 teams since yesterday’s bracket:

  • I’ve switched West Virginia and Texas Tech in the seed list. Both are still 4-seeds currently, but the Mountaineers are now one spot ahead of the Red Raiders.
  • I’ve moved Kansas ahead of Xavier in the seed list, which means the Jayhawks are now the 3rd 1-seed and are bracketed into the Midwest region, which would mean a Wichita-Omaha path for Kansas.
  • Because of Alabama winning and Nevada losing (which means the Mountain West will receive 2 bids now, Nevada is getting a bid), Oklahoma has fallen into the First Four games.
  • After re-examining resumes, Baylor has been removed from the field. Louisville has taken their place. Oklahoma State is still listed as the First Team Out. They are a great test case for the selection committee. Can they or will they ignore Oklahoma State’s high RPI?

As always, here’s my reminder about how the NCAA is bucketing wins this year:

One important development since my last Bracketology post is that the NCAA has revealed some of their new logic in selecting teams for this year’s tournament. No longer will we see the historical Top 25, Top 50, Top 100 wins. Now, the committee has placed more importance on road/neutral games and have created “quadrants” to properly place these games. Straight from the linked article above from the NCAA website, here is how the quadrants will be bucketed:
  Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75
  Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
  Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
  Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus

So now instead of talking about top-50 wins, you’ll hear and read about Quadrant 1 wins when you read Bracketology posts. If a site is still talking about top-50 wins in regards to a team’s NCAA Tournament chances without mentioning if that win came at home, on the road, or at a neutral site, quit reading that site. It is uninformed. There are two tools I like to use to see how a team’s wins will look at the end of the season: RPIForecast and barttorvik.com. Both sites show a current projection of where a team’s RPI is expected to be at the end of the season, but you can also tinker with results to see what it would mean for their RPI. At barttorvik.com, there is an RPI Forecast page and a TeamCast page. The latter allows you to input results into future games for a specific team to see the RPI and NCAA Tournament likelihood effects on that team — it’s a great tool. Use these tools if you’re curious about your favorite school’s Selection Sunday chances.

Here is the bracket for this edition, and I’ve seeded the teams 1-68. Also included below is group of teams I have just outside of the field currently. I’ll break down what this all means for each Big 12 team below.


Bracket:

bracket march 10.png

Seed List:

•  1 — Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
•  2 — North Carolina, Duke, Purdue, Cincinnati
•  3 — Michigan, Michigan State, Auburn, Tennessee
•  4 — West Virginia, Texas Tech, Arizona, Gonzaga
•  5 — Clemson, Wichita State, Kentucky, Florida
•  6 — Ohio State, Houston, Miami (FL), TCU
•  7 — Nevada, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Arkansas
•  8 — Texas A&M, Creighton, Virginia Tech, UCLA
•  9 — Butler, Kansas State, St. Bonaventure, USC
•  10 — Providence, Alabama, NC State, Missouri
•  11 — Texas, Florida State, St. Mary’s, Oklahoma, Louisville, Loyola Chicago
•  12 —
South Dakota State, San Diego State, Western Kentucky, Buffalo
•  13 —
Louisiana Lafayette, New Mexico State, Vermont, Murray State
•  14 — 
College of Charleston, UNC Greensboro, Bucknell, Montana
•  15 —
Wright State, Penn, Lipscomb, Iona
•  16 — 
UC Irvine, Radford, LIU Brooklyn, Southeastern Louisiana, Hampton, Arkansas Pine Bluff

•  Last 4 Byes: Alabama, NC State, Missouri, Texas
•  Last 4 IN: 
Florida State, St. Mary’s, Oklahoma, Louisville
•  First 4 OUT:
Oklahoma State, Middle Tennessee, Arizona State, Baylor
•  Next 4 OUT:
Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Nebraska


Bids by Conference:

•  ACC: 9
•  SEC: 8
•  Big 12: 7
•  Big East: 6
•  Big Ten: 4
•  Pac-12: 3
•  American: 3
•  West Coast: 2
•  Atlantic 10: 2
•  Mountain West: 2


 

 

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